Neutral ENSO conditions are firmly established across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with most atmospheric and oceanic indicators at near normal levels. The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue through the southern spring, with forecast temperatures being lower than were being forecast a few months ago.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is currently neutral. Our climate model, POAMA, has forecast a positive IOD event to develop during winter, although there’s no evidence of an event at this stage. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring.>> More