Forecast Outlook for 2013 NE Monsoon Season (October–December) Rainfall over South Peninsula

Forecast Outlook for 2013 NE Monsoon Season (October–December) Rainfall over South Peninsula

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Published

24 October 2013
Press Release Number:
N/A

The south Peninsula consisting of five subdivisions (Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka) receives about 30% of its annual rainfall during the NE monsoon season (October to December). Tamil Nadu in particular receives about 48 % of its annual rainfall during this season. Due to this important fact, IMD has been preparing experimental forecasts for NE monsoon season rainfall over south Peninsula since 1998 using statistical models. IMD also continuously works to improve the skill of the forecasting models. This year, for preparing the quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for NE monsoon season rainfall over the south Peninsula, a 5- parameter Principle Component Regression (PCR) has been used. Similarly a 4- Parameter PCR model has been used for the forecasting season rainfall over Tamil Nadu. Multi Model Ensemble Forecasts based on dynamical models from few important international agencies were also examined for guidance.

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