India Meteorological Department: Long Range Forecast for 2011 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall

India Meteorological Department: Long Range Forecast for 2011 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall

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Published

19 April 2011
Press Release Number:
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India Meteorological Department (IMD) follows a two-stage forecasting strategy for long range forecasting of the south-west monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole. The Long Period Average (LPA) of the south-west monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89cm. The first long range forecast for the south-west monsoon season (June-September) rainfall is issued in April and the forecast update is issued in June.

IMD’s long range forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)). There is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA).

Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.>> Press release 

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