JMA's New Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS2)

JMA's New Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS2)

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Published

23 May 2015

A new version of JMA’s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS2) is scheduled to replace the current operational system (JMA/MRI-CPS1) in June 2015. The Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is used to produce three-month and warm/cold season predictions as well as for El Niño monitoring and outlook work. Changes in the new version include improved resolution and physics in the model’s atmospheric and oceanic components and the introduction of an interactive sea ice model. In the new real-time operational suite, 51-member ensemble integrations are carried out from consecutive initial dates with intervals of five days. This is the same as the configuration of JMA/MRI-CPS1, except for an increase in the number of ensembles per initial date from 9 to 13 (Figure 1). Verification of re-forecasts (hindcasts) shows that JMA/MRI-CPS2 has higher predictive skill than JMA/MRI-CPS1 for three-month, warm/cold season and El Niño predictions.

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