Summary of the Forecast outlook for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2012 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall ( India Meteorological Department)

Summary of the Forecast outlook for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2012 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall ( India Meteorological Department)

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Published

7 August 2012
Press Release Number:
N/A

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational long range forecasts for the southwest monsoon Season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole in two stages; in April and in June. Along with update forecast for the season rainfall over the country as a whole issued in June, forecast for monthly rainfall (for July and August) over the country as a whole and season (June to September) rainfall over the four geographical regions (Northwest India, Central India, Northeast India and South Peninsula) are also issued.  From 2009, IMD started to issue forecast outlook for the rainfall during second half (August-September) of the monsoon season. This forecast is issued in the end of July. IMD has now prepared a forecast outlook for the second half of the 2012 monsoon season. For this, a new Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model based on 5 predictors is used

a)    The rainfall during August is likely to be normal (96 ± 9% of LPA) as was forecasted in June.  

(b)    Rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half (August to September) of the 2012 southwest monsoon season is likely to be below normal (<94% of long period average (LPA)). 

(c)    Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September, 2012 is likely to be 91% of LPA with a model error of ±8%. 

(d)    Based on the rainfall distribution over the country till date and outlook for the second half of the season, the seasonal rainfall of the entire southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be deficient (< 90% of LPA).

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