Tropical Pacific expected to remain ENSO-neutral this summer (Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government)

Tropical Pacific expected to remain ENSO-neutral this summer (Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government)

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Published

22 November 2013
Press Release Number:
N/A

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the current ENSO-neutral state of the tropical Pacific will persist through to the end of the southern hemisphere summer.While ENSO is the dominant natural driver of Australia's climate, a neutral period does not guarantee a benign or normal season. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase, more localised weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors. For instance, near record warm sea surface temperatures around parts of the Australian coastline are currently likely to be influencing regional climate. >> More 

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