Feb-Mar-Apr Probability Forecast from Climate Outlook Forum for North Africa

Feb-Mar-Apr Probability Forecast from Climate Outlook Forum for North Africa

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Published

10 February 2012

The second Climate Outlook Forum for North Africa held in Algiers , Algeria, 24-26 January 2012 has issued a consensus probability forecast for the precipitation and temperature for the season February, March, April, 2012 based on global and national climate models.

The main features of the global climate observed during the last few months, and likely to continue to a smaller extent into the coming Feb-Mar-Apr period, are a weak to moderate strength La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a tendency toward the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The latter feature has promoted higher than average sea level pressure in the eastern subtropical Atlantic basin and western Europe, which in turn has led to drier and somewhat cooler than average conditions over major portions of the northern Africa region.

A slight tendency toward below normal precipitation, and near normal to below normal temperature, are indicated in the western portion of the north African region in the Feb-Mar-Apr Outlook, while enhanced chances for normal precipitation and temperature conditions is predicted for the central portion of the region. In the eastern one-third of the region, equal chances for below, near and above average conditions are predicted. >> Bulletin

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