Severe drought has persisted over most parts of the eastern sector of the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa since the last quarter of 2010 with far reaching socio-economic implications.
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum issued a consensus statement following a 17 June meeting convened by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), WMO, United Kingdom Met Office and other partners.
It said there is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over Central Sudan and western Ethiopia in July-September. Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of long term recorded rainfall amounts.
It said there is an increased likelihood of above to near normal rainfall over Eritrea, Djibouti, Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, northwestern Tanzania, Western Kenya, extreme northwestern Somalia, southwestern, central and northeastern Ethiopia, as well as southern and parts of northeastern Sudan. Near normal rainfall is defined as the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centred around the climatological median.
The rest of the Greater Horn of Africa region – including drought hit parts of the eastern sector – is likely to remain seasonally dry, it said.
July-September constitutes a major rainfall season over much of the Greater Horn of Africa’s northern sector and the western parts of the equatorial sector.
The outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month to-month variations may occur. Forecast updates will be provided by ICPAC and the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. >> More