Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season (October – December), according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum.
However, below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Below normal rainfall is also likely over some areas of north and eastern parts of the region. Above normal rainfall is likely over western and northwestern parts of Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region.
During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and it is equally probable that these conditions are likely to continue or border line La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the northeast monsoon season, according to the Outlook based on a variety of models as well as expert opinion.
Many parts of South Asia receive significant amounts of rainfall in the three-month period, which coincides with one of the major agricultural seasons of the region.
The forum, held in Myanmar from 27-28 September, was only the second one devoted to the Northeast monsoon. A separate statement for winter season (December 2016 to February 2017) will be issued in November 2016.
Thanks to scientific advances, seasonal outlooks are more accurate and accessible in the past. They can be downscaled by national meteorological and hydrological services to provide localized climate information for users such as farmers, water managers, the health and energy sectors and disaster managers.
WMO is therefore working to expand the reach of regional climate outlook forums to new areas as part of a drive, funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada, to implement the Global Framework for Climate Services at regional and national level.