Normal to above normal rainfall is likely during the 2015 Northeast monsoon season (October – December) over southern parts of South Asia including southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Above normal rainfall is likely over northern most parts of the region. Other areas of the region that generally receive very little rain during the season are likely to receive normal rainfall. During the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
This consensus forecast outlook for the 2015 northeast monsoon season rainfall and temperature over South Asia have been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. Currently strong El Niño conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and it is almost certain that El Nino conditions will continue to prevail during the northeast monsoon season. However, it is recognized that there is uncertainty about the impacts of El Niño on the seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns of the region. It is also recognized that other regional and global factors can affect the rainfall and temperature patterns over the region.