El Niño in decline but impacts may continue until mid-2010

El Niño in decline but impacts may continue until mid-2010

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Published

30 March 2010

Geneva, 30 March 2010 (WMO) – The ongoing El Niño event continues to have significant and widespread impacts. The signature of this event, which started in June 2009, is seen in basin-wide Pacific Ocean conditions, and in many of the climate patterns around the world that are typically impacted by an El Niño event. The most likely outcome by mid-year 2010 is for the El Niño event to have decayed and near-neutral conditions to be re-established across the tropical Pacific. However, this time of year (March-June) is a particularly difficult period for forecasting developments in the tropical Pacific, and forecasters cannot rule out persistence of El Niño or the possible early stages of La Niña by mid-year. Even during the decaying phase of the El Niño expected over the next few months, the conditions associated with it will continue to influence climate patterns at least through the second quarter of the year, and this information will be contained in the available national and regional seasonal climate forecast assessment. >> full text

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