Observations from various instruments are crucial to understand how the atmosphere, oceans, rivers and lakes, land surface as well as the biosphere influence our weather, climate and hydrology. Powerful computers in global centres process these quality-controlled data from instruments and Earth-observing satellites to be used in numerical models based on physical laws to produce weather, climate and water-related forecasts, predictions, and information products and services for use in daily lives, long-term decision-making and research. Without these valuable inputs from observations, the quality of the models is compromised.
Another important aspect is the quality of the numerical models themselves. Due to the complexity of the processes governing weather, climate and hydrology, some approximations have to be made in the computer models. Model developer work continuously on improving the accuracy of numerical models, while also lessening the number of assumptions that have to be made. Advancing the accuracy of the models also requires collaboration with computer scientists to tap the progress being achieved in super computing. Since the first weather forecasts of the 1950s, advancements in numerical weather prediction, and more recently in climate projections, have gone hand-in-hand with progress in scientific computing capabilities.
The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) now focus on identifying problems with forecasting the weather and climate in a seamless fashion, i.e. crossing the artificial and historical border between weather and climate. The possible areas of improvement include:
- enhanced observation and data analysis systems
- increased understanding of atmosphere dynamics and predictability
- higher spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing instruments
- formulation and methodological approaches of our numerical models on all time scales
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increased accessibility to global, regional and national numerical weather prediction outputs
Another aspect is the proper communication of weather forecasts and warnings, with information tailored to the needs of the user of the forecast, for example emergency managers or the general public.
Capacity building of technicians who maintain instruments and of meteorologists and climatologists on the optimal use and interpretation of prediction tools (especially in developing countries) to improve decision-making is absolutely necessary.