This Miniforum will address the seasonal forecast of the tropical cyclone activity in the South West Indian Ocean.
It is widely acknowledged that forecasting for the cyclone season ahead improves from November onwards. Therefore, this Miniforum is perfectly timed for the met community to share the latest forecast information with a wide variety of stakeholders.
This Miniforum, the first of the kind, is organized to meet the recommendation of the Ninth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (SWIOCOF-9, online, 14-17 September 2020) and the request of end-users.
Opening remarks by Dr Johan Stander, Director, WMO Services Department
- A look back at some of the last few seasons and impacts - helping put discussions into context - 15 min
- Technical presentation – how is the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outlook developed – Methodology used – 15 min
- TC outlook –– 30 min
- TC activity, geographical distribution, tracks
- What happened the last time a similar ‘seasonal setup’ was forecast (impact of La Nina)
- What can we say in respect of areas that may be more at risk of TC impacts
- Update of the regional rainfall seasonal forecast with regard to the TC activity -10 min
- Open discussion with partners, Q/A – 50 min
The documents are available here.