The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that climate indicators of ENSO remain at near normal levels, with neutral conditions now firmly established in the tropical Pacific. International climate model forecasts of ENSO show neutral conditions are likely to continue through 2011.
Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO including the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the date-line and ocean temperatures have been at near normal levels for the last month after rapidly transitioning away from the La Niña conditions that had been present for the previous 9−12 months.
The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is currently neutral. A weakly positive IOD event has been forecast to develop during winter. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring. >> More