The tropical Pacific Ocean warmed only slightly over the last fortnight, with temperatures continuing to approach their normal values for this time of year. The recent warming in the Pacific Ocean is consistent with the life cycle of past La Niña events, which tend to decline during the southern hemisphere’s autumn. All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña over the coming months, with a return to neutral conditions likely by the southern hemisphere winter.
Contrasting with the ocean, atmospheric indicators of the La Niña including trade winds, cloudiness and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have shown little trend and remain consistent with a well developed La Niña event. These atmospheric indicators are expected to return to neutral over the coming months in response to changes in the ocean.>> Full text