The on-going El Niño is showing signs of strengthening. Recent observations indicate that the Sea Surface Temperature over the Niño 3.4 region has manifested significant warming since April 2015 and expected to be at moderate level by end of June 2015. Computer models suggested that the current El Niño may last until the early months of 2016.
Impacts to the Philippines include below normal rainfall condition persisting in many parts of the country and late Southwest Monsoon development leading to the late onset of the rainy season. Current weather analyses already shows signs of gradual development of southwest monsoon and the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Philippines, as manifested by increase in thunderstorm activities mostly in the afternoon.