India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational long range forecasts for the southwest monsoon Season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole in two stages; in April and in June. Along with update forecast for the season rainfall over the country as a whole issued in June, forecast for monthly rainfall (for July and August) over the country as a whole and season (June to September) rainfall over the four geographical regions (Northwest India, Central India, Northeast India and South Peninsula) are also issued. From 2009, IMD started to issue forecast outlook for the rainfall during second half (August-September) of the monsoon season. This forecast is issued in the end of July. IMD has now prepared a forecast outlook for the second half of the 2013 monsoon.
(a) Rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half (August to September) of the 2013 southwest monsoon season is likely to be normal (94-106% of long period average (LPA)). However, the probability of rainfall to be below normal is also higher than the climatological probability.
(b) Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September, 2013 is likely to be 96% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be normal (96 ± 9% of LPA) as was forecasted in June>> More