Summary of the Forecast outlook for the 2011 September Rainfall Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2011 September is likely to be below normal (77 to 92% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, 2011 September rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of LPA with a model error of ±15%. However, if weak La Nina conditions re-emerge in September, the rainfall received can be more than expected.
The outlook for the 2011 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall is that the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be as was forecasted by IMD in June i.e. 95% ±4 % of LPA. However, in view of latest meteorological conditions, it is likely to be on the positive side of the model error (i.e.95%+ 4%). The season (June to September) rainfall over all the 4 geographical regions (Northwest India, Northeast India, Central India and South Peninsula) also likely to be within the limits of forecasts (i.e.97% of LPA, 95% of LPA, 95% of LPA, and 94% of LPA respectively, all with model errors of ±8% of LPA) issued by IMD in June.