Tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds
The past fortnight has seen climate indicators ease slightly, with all showing values near the threshold for an El Niño event. While indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), sea surface temperatures and trade winds have eased over the past two weeks, such short-term fluctuations are common and to be expected, and indicators still clearly remain near El Niño thresholds.
Over the last few months, observations have been trending toward El Niño. This is consistent with most model forecasts indicating that the tropical Pacific may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds sometime during the late southern winter or spring 2012. Some models indicate only borderline El Niño conditions may occur, but none suggest a return of La Niña. >> More