Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half (August to September) of the 2015 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts

The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2015 monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model based on 5 predictors with a model error of 8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.

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