PAGASA: Developing El Nino

PAGASA: Developing El Nino



3 September 2012
Press Release Number:

Atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific continued to be near-normal in July 2012, although a persistent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean trending towards an El Nino condition have been observed since June. Warmer sea surface temperature strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific ocean, a typical development stage of an El Niño. Likewise, observed warmer temperatures below the surface of the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is a good indicator to sustain the evolving El Nino condition. Dynamical and statistical model forecasts suggest the El Niño will likely develop in August or September.

El Niño periods are usually characterized by below normal rainfall condition across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year (OND) and early months or first quarter (Jan-Mar) of the following year. Climate pattern in the country during the months of July and August was generally influenced by the moderate to strong westerlies, which reflect an active Southwest (SW) monsoon activity, generating enhanced rainfall over most areas of the country. This characterized the seasonal variability of El Nino impact, where the reverse happened during the early stages of warm episode, an enhanced rainfall in any time within the months of July, August, September instead of below normal rainfall condition.


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