El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions continued during June 2013, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperature (SST) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.Most model forecasts continue to indicate ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of 2013.
July to September: The period is the peak of the Southwest (SW) monsoon season, locally known as “Habagat” and tropical cyclone activity is likewise at its maximum. Much of the seasonal rainfall from various rain-causing weather systems can be observed over this period. Increased frequency of rainy days is one of the most notable characteristics of this season. Eight (8) to eleven (11) tropical cyclones (TCs) are likely to develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). During these months, storms move north of the Philippines, with a generally west northwest to northwest direction. Monsoon breaks are likely to be expected during the period. For July-August-September season, rainfall conditions will likely to be near normal in most parts of the country. During July, patches of below normal rainfall are likely over Palawan, SOCCSKSARGEN and Maguindanao. On the other hand, provinces of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, some provinces of Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, CARAGA and Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) will likely receive above normal rainfall conditions during August. Gradual recession of rains associated with the SW monsoon is expected during the later part of September up to early part of October. >>More