Climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Niño thresholds. Although El Niño development stalled during the second half of July, over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Niño event. Likewise, the central Pacific Ocean has continued to warm.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology continue to show further warming across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds before the end of September 2012. None of the models surveyed indicate a return to La Niña conditions. >> More