Seasonal weather outlook

Seasonal weather outlook



6 February 2015

A variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, regional expert judgments and combination of them have been used to generate long-range weather forecast by the different climate prediction centers around the world. National Agromet Center (NAMC), Pakistan Meteorological Department adopts an ensemble approach to formulate its seasonal weather outlook for Pakistan (on experimental basis), taking into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres and different Global Climate Models (GCMs).

Regional weather (precipitation and temperature) outlook is predicted from different global climate models by using persisted sea surface temperature on 0000 Feb 01, 2015. Model’s output then tuned by applying Regional Correction Factor (RCF). RCF has computed by comparison of Long Range Averages (LRA) with model’s simulation for the period (2004-2012) on monthly basis. That might be somewhat different from actual weather because of time to time variation in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) during the season. Accuracy of Outlook seasonal weather mainly depend upon SST used in global climate models. Even with use of accurate SST, still is uncertainty in the climate forecast due to chaotic internal variability of the atmosphere. 

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