The current rainfall season has seen normal to above normal rainfall for the southern half of continental Southern African Development Community region, notably Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, south Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, central and southern Mozambique and Swaziland. The northern and eastern part – namely Tanzania, northern Angola, northern half of DRC, north Mozambique and Madagascar.
For the February to April 2017 period, there is a high likelihood of: above-normal rainfall over Zimbabwe, most of Botswana, south of Mozambique and northern South Africa. Normal to above normal rainfall will continue in the bulk of continental SADC, and normal to below-normal rainfall in the northern parts of the region.
The assessment and outlook was issued by the SADC Climate Services Centre and will be downscaled by national meteorological services to provide more localized forecasts.
Many countries in the region suffered from drought in 2015 and 2016 as a result of the powerful El Niño event. This gave way to a very weak La Niña event. Most models forecast neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña) until at least June 2017.
The climate outlook is available OUTLOOK_UPDATE_FMA_2017_1.pdf