The Asean Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) has issued its seasonal outlook for the December, January, February period, taking into account the significant influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate over Southeast Asia.
For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), there is a strongly enhanced probability of below normal rainfall over the Philippines and the north-eastern part of Borneo Island. Over the eastern Maritime Continent and over the northern part of Mainland Southeast Asia, there are slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal rainfall. Elsewhere over the region, there are slightly enhanced probabilities for normal or below normal rainfall.
Above normal temperatures are very likely over much of the Southeast Asia region for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon season (Dec-Jan-Feb), with the highest probabilities over the central and western Maritime Continent.
The ASEANCOF outlook is available here.