The Great Horn of Africa Climate Outlook for the important June to September 2016 rainfall season indicates increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over most of the northern parts of the region – including areas which were affected by drought. There is the likelihood of early to timely onset of the seasonal June-July-August-September rains over the region, and the risk of floods during the rainfall peak months of August and September over Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan.
Near normal to below normal rainfall is the most likely scenario for coastal and western areas of the equatorial sector, according to the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which met 31-31 May. In remaining areas, June to September is a dry season and these areas are expected to remain generally dry during the forecast period.
The forecast is based on the demise of the strong El Niño and predictions that La Niña may start developing during the second half of 2016, as well as the anticipated negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that has significant influence on regional climate.