Greater Horn of Africa climate outlook

Greater Horn of Africa climate outlook



7 June 2021

The upcoming rainfall season, June to September is an important rainfall season for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. For some of these countries, it is the main farming season for their staple crops.

A wetter than usual June to September season is expected over Sudan, South Sudan, most of Ethiopia, and Uganda indicating good prospects for pasture and crop production. The season is expected to start early in western Ethiopia, southern and western Sudan, southern Eritrea, northern South Sudan, and Uganda, and late in eastern Ethiopia, northern Eritrea, and north-eastern Sudan.

This is according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which convened the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF58) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region and other partners including the World Meteorological Organization.

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over northern Sudan, eastern Eritrea, most parts of Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and eastern Tanzania. On the other hand, southern Sudan, much of South Sudan, western half of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western parts of Tanzania are expected to experience cooler than usual temperatures. 

The expected wetter than usual season is likely to increase the risk of vector prone diseases. Considering the ongoing simultaneous emergencies impacting the region, including the COVID19 pandemic, regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast to develop contingency plans, and to update them with weekly and monthly forecasts provided by ICPAC and National Meteorological Services.

The 58th session of GHACOF brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic sectors, governmental and non-governmental organizations, decision-makers, climate scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation measures for the upcoming season. 

WMO supports regional climate outlook forums, which combine forecasting products from a variety of different models into a single consensus outlook. National meteorological services then downscale the regional outlook into national and local forecasts. GHACOF is one of the oldest and best established of the network.

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