The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum has issued its seasonal predictions for the forthcoming March-May rainy season which is vital to agriculture and food security in a region that has been hit by both droughts and floods in recent years.
There is an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over much of the northern part of South Sudan; southern Sudan; northern and eastern Ethiopia; eastern half of Kenya; Somalia, and eastern parts of Tanzania, according to the outlook. Specifically, it indicated a 45 percent probability of near normal rainfall, a 35 percent probability of below normal rainfall, and a 20 percent probability of above normal rainfall in these areas.
Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; southern parts of South Sudan; southwestern and central Ethiopia; western and central Kenya as well as western half of Tanzania have an increased likelihood of normal (45 percent) to above-normal (35 percent) rainfall in March-May, it said, noting a 20 per cent probability of below normal rainfall in these areas.
The climate outlook was issued at the end of a meeting organized by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), 18-20 February in Bujumbura, Burundi. Factors taken into consideration included sea surface temperature conditions over the Western Indian and eastern tropical Atlantic Oceans,
as well as neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Key processes considered also included, the Indian Ocean Dipole, monsoonal wind systems over the region and tropical cyclone activities over Indian Ocean sub region. >> Full text