July sees extreme precipitation and heat

July sees extreme precipitation and heat

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19 July 2018

High impact weather, including extreme heat, drought and disastrous precipitation, has marked the first half of summer in the northern hemisphere.

Japan suffered the worst flooding and landslide in decades, with many daily rainfall records broken. According to official government figures,  more than 200 people lost their lives.  Around 10,000 houses have been destroyed and/or inundated.

Shortly after the flooding and landslide disasters due to record-breaking heavy rainfall in early July, an intense heatwave hits Japan. Within the nationwide observation network deployed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), 200 out of 927 stations recorded maximum temperature exceeding 35 degrees Celsius on 15 July.

While issuing various alert information on extremely high temperature, JMA produces “Weather Analysis Maps” showing meteorological conditions and temperature distribution considering altitudes with a resolution of 1 x 1 km, updating every hour.

Japan is one of the world’s best prepared countries for disaster risk reduction and disaster management. JMA issued emergency warnings in advance, targeting as many as eleven prefectures in the country to alert people to the significant likelihood of catastrophes.  The emergency warning system was launched by JMA in 2013, based on lessons from the major tsunami caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. In addition, JMA dispatched its experts as the JMA Emergency Task Team or JETT, to local governments in the region to best support multi-hazard disaster prevention activities. It set up a web portal dedicated to the heavy rain  event.

 

Total precipitation during June 28-July 8 rain event

Daily max temperature - July 2018 - JMA

 

 

Between 28 June and 8 July, there was extraordinarily heavy rainfall caused by a huge amount of water vapor from a stationary rainy front, in addition to  damp air remaining from Typhoon Prapiroon. West Japan and Hokkaido experienced record precipitation during the period, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

Total precipitation at many observation sites reached two- to four times the mean monthly precipitation for July. For instance, 1,800 mm of rain fell in Shikoku, 1,200 mm in Tokai, 900 mm in North Kyushu, 600 mm in Kinki, and 500 mm in Chugoku. This triggered a large number of landslide, inundation and flood events.

Typhoon Maria

On 11 July, Typhoon Maria made landfall in coastal regions of China's Fujian province. On the approach to Northern Taiwan, Maria was the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale, with winds of 175 km/h and gusts of 250 km/h.  China’s National Meteorological Center issued a red warning on 10 July, and activated emergency response procedures. 

Extreme temperatures

On June 28, Quriyat, just south of Muscat, on the coast of Oman, recorded a 24-hour minimum temperature of 42.6°C, meaning that the coolest overnight temperature did not drop below that level. Although highest “low” temperature is not currently monitored as a category in the WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive, it is believed to be the highest such temperature ever recorded by a thermometer.

Ouargla, in  Algeria’s Sahara Desert, reported a maximum temperature of 51.3°C on 5 July. It is likely that this is the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in Algeria. WMO’s Weather and Climate Extremes Archive currently lists Kebili, Tunisia, as being Africa’s highest temperature with 55°C recorded in July 1931. However, there have been questions about the reliability of colonial era temperature records in Africa.

Many parts of North Africa saw a heatwave from 3 to 10 July. Morocco saw a new record of 43.4°C at Bouarfa on 3 July.

The station of Furnace Creek in Death Valley national park in California, USA, recorded a temperature of 52.0°C on 8 July. The station holds the record for the highest recorded temperature on Earth at 56.7°C (134°F), on 10 July 1913.

Other parts of California were also gripped by extreme heat. Downtown Los Angeles set a new monthly July minimum overnight record of 26.1°C on 7 July. Chino, near Los Angeles, saw a record temperature of 48.9°C (120°F). Burbank airport set a new absolute record of 45.6°C (114°F) on 6 July, beating 45°C in 1971, and Van Nuys Airport saw a record temperature of 47.2°C (117°C) according to the US National Weather Service.  

In Canada, a heatwave combined with high humidity in the province of Quebec contributed to dozens of deaths, especially among the vulnerable and elderly.

At the same time, parts of Eastern Canada saw a brief return of wintery weather, with snow in parts of Newfoundland and Cape Breton (Nova Scotia), and temperatures of -1C, in St John’s and Halifax. Winter weather this late in the year is rare, this being the first since 1996.”

Temperatures were exceptionally high over large parts of northern Siberia in June 2018. That trend continued through the first week of July. The Western Siberian Hydromet Center of Russia issued a storm warning due to temperatures of more than 30°C for more than five days, expected to last between 9 and 16 July. This creates high risks of wildfires as well as of power supply, transportation, and utility services disruptions and drowning of people escaping the heat in water. Krasnoyarsk Region reported daily anomalies of 7°C above average, with fires already impacting about 80,000 hectares of forest.

 

Drought and heat in parts of Europe

Juneprecipitation

In Europe, WMO’s Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring, operated by the German Weather Service, DWD, issued a Climate Watch advisory with guidance on drought and above normal temperatures valid until 23 July. The guidance product, used by National Meteorological Services to issue national warnings and forecasts, referred to a continuation of the drought situation and above-normal temperatures for northern Europe (from Ireland to the Baltic States and southern Scandinavia). The weekly temperature anomalies are forecasted with up to +3 - +6°C. The probability that precipitation will be below the lower tercile is more than 70%. This drought may be accompanied by water scarcity, local thunderstorms, risks of wildfires and harvest losses, it said.

The combination of little precipitation and sustained above-average temperatures (including heat waves), is due to persistent anticyclone conditions.  Concerns are mainly for agricultural production (primarily cereals and hay), while water supply disruptions or restrictions are reported locally. No significant rain is expected until at least mid-July, nor are temperatures forecast to return at normal during the same month, according to the Copernicus European Drought Observatory

Amid an extended heatwave in Scandinavia, temperatures topped 30°C in the Arctic Circle.   Norway saw a record temperature of 33.5°C in Badufoss on 17 July, and it reached 33.4°C in Kevo, Finland. Influenced by a warm wind, the far north of Norway (Makkaur) saw a new record minimum overnight temperature of 25.2°C on 18 July.

There is an elevated risk of forest fires throughout Scandinavia and the Baltic region. Sweden reported about 50 forest fires burning in mid July.

Ireland recorded heatwaves at 15 synoptic stations (5 consecutive days or more with maximum temperature over 25°C) and an absolute drought at all its stations.  

The UK saw its driest first half of summer on record, with just 47 mm between 1 June and 16 July.

June one of the warmest on record

surface_air_temperature_anomaly_for_june_2018

Globally, June was the second warmest on record, according to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Copernicus Climate Change Service. The year to date is the hottest La Niña year on record.

In addition to the exceptionally high over large parts of northern Siberia in June 2018, temperatures were also well above average over much of the USA, central Canada and North Africa, and over the Middle East and northern China.

The contiguous USA had 3rd hottest June on record. But many parts of the country had well above average minimum overnight temperatures, according to the US National Centers for Environmental Information. In 2018 (as of July 9), there have been 6 weather and climate disaster events in the USA, with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included 4 severe storm events and 2 winter storm events. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 36 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. 

statewide_minimum_temperature_ranks

Relationship with Climate Change

Episodes of extreme heat and precipitation are increasing as a result of climate change. Although it is not possible to attribute the individual extreme events of June and July to climate change, they are compatible with the general long-term trend due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Many recent studies have found that the probability of the extreme event has been influenced by human activity, either directly or indirectly.. Of a set of 131 studies published between 2011 and 2016 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 65% found that the event’s probability was significantly affected by anthropogenic activities.

 It has been more difficult to identify anthropogenic influence in the attribution of precipitation extremes. Whilst some studies have found that the probability of some extreme precipitation events was increased, most often indirectly, by climate change, for many other studies the results have been inconclusive. This is because the underlying long-term climate signal in extreme precipitation is less clear than it is for temperature and, because extreme precipitation events typically occur on shorter spatial scales than extreme temperature events. At present, attribution studies are mostly carried out in research mode in peer-reviewed literature. 

The IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extreme Events anticipates for example that “it is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in this century over many areas of the globe” and that “a 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-15 year event by the end of the 21st century in many regions”. 

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