Sahel Outlook

Sahel Outlook



29 May 2012

The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development has issued its seasonal outlook for the July-September rainy season in the Sahel

Here is a summary:

-Above normal precipitation very likely over eastern Sahel (zone II) around Lake Chad in Niger, over north-eastern Nigeria and much of Chad. About 100% to 130% of normal precipitation is expected over much of this zone;

-Below normal to normal precipitation very likely over the Western Sahel (zone I) in the northern half of Senegal, Southern part of Mali and Southern Mauritania. About 70% to 90% of normal precipitation is expected for zone 1;

-Above normal to normal precipitation is very likely (zone III) over much of Burkina Faso and northern parts of Togo, Benin and Ghana. About 80 to 130% of the normal precipitation is expected for zone 3;

-Normal precipitation is very likely (zone IV) along the West African coast from Liberia to Nigeria and much of the southern part of Cameroon;

The region is not expected to experience severe deficit of precipitation. However, knowledge of sub-seasonal variability of the regional climate and analysis of recent experimental products suggest a late onset of precipitation more likely over zone 1 (Northern Senegal, South eastern Mauritania, Western Mali, The Gambia) and disruptions in the distribution of precipitating events during summer 2012 over much of the region.


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