The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) has issued its seasonal forecast for June-July-August 2021 for Southeast Asia, taking into account the end of the La Niña event and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral though may become negative.
The onset and strength of the Southwest Monsoon season is expected to be near-normal (typical) for much of the region, although may be slightly delayed for some northern regions. A possible development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event may increase the monsoon strength later in the outlook period.
Overall, the tropical cyclone frequency is expected to be below-average for the Bay of Bengal, while near- to above-average around the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea and the Western North Pacific.
The forum agreed on the following consensus-based seasonal outlook for June-July-August 2021 for the Southeast Asia region:
RAINFALL For the upcoming June-July-August period, near-normal rainfall is expected for much of the region, including Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Viet Nam, Brunei Darussalam, and northern Philippines. Near- to above-normal rainfall is expected for parts of the Maritime Continent, including Singapore and central andsouthern Philippines.
TEMPERATURE Near- to above-normal air temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia for the June-July-August 2021. The regions with the highest likelihood of above-normal temperature include central Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, and central and southern Viet Nam.
ASEANCOF is part of an international network of regional climate forums around the world regularly producing consensus-based regional seasonal outlooks. These offer increasingly reliable and accessible decision-support tools for climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, public health, water management and disaster risk reduction.