Above normal rainfall is likely during the 2015/2016 winter season (December to February) over southern parts of South Asia including Sri Lanka, Maldives and neighboring Lakshadweep Island region. Below normal precipitation is likely over the northernmost part of south Asia. Other areas of the region are likely to receive normal precipitation. During the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
This consensus forecast outlook for the 2015/2016 winter season precipitation and temperature over South Asia have been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. Currently strong El Niño conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and it is almost certain that El Nino conditions will continue to prevail during the winter season. However, it is recognized that there is uncertainty about the impacts of El Niño on the seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns of the region. It is also recognized that other regional and global factors can also affect the precipitation and temperature patterns over the region.
The South Asian Climate outlook is available here.