Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 October-November-December season over some parts of the southeastern peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, which held its eleventh session at Malé, Maldives, during 25-27 September 2017.
Over the rest of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receive very little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be normal.
Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.
During the season (October to December), parts of South Asia receive significant amounts of rainfall, which coincides with one of the major agricultural seasons of the region. The re-establishment of prevailing north easterly trade-wind regime over South Asia associated with the southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) ushers-in the so-called “Northeast Monsoon” (NEM), bringing rainfall to the southernmost parts of India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. In Sri Lanka, the October to November period is known as second Inter Monsoon (SIM) season.
The Outlook took into consideration the fact that currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line or weak La Nina conditions later this year or early next year. In the absence of sea surface temperature forcings from the Pacific and Indian oceans, strong intra seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability over the region, leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged rainfall and temperature patterns.
This event was held in support of implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services . WMO’s collaborating partners for this event included the Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning System (RIMES) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Maldives Meteorological Service.