The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has issued a consensus outlook for the 2011 southwest monsoon rainfall through an expert assessment of the available indications at a meeting 13-15 April in Pune, India.
The outlook, based on the various prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different empirical and dynamical climate models, indicates large uncertainty partly because La Nia conditions are expected to weaken to a neutral state over the course of the coming monsoon season. However, the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, for the season as a whole, would most likely be within the normal range.
The outlook indicates slightly enhanced likelihood for below normal rainfall conditions over the northwestern parts and some northeastern parts of South Asia. There is slightly enhanced likelihood of above normal rainfall over the southern parts of South Asia including the islands. Rainfall conditions close to the normal are more likely over the remaining parts of South Asia.
Asia is a large continent with large differences in the climatological settings on a subregional scale. Therefore WMO's Regional Association for Asia recommended sub-regional climate outlook forums devoted to countries having similar climatic characteristics. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum was established in 2010 is a step in that direction with specific focus on the climate information needs of nations affected by the Asian summer monsoon climate.