The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its latest Update on El Niño/La Niña, the phenomena in the tropical Pacific which have a significant impact upon weather and climate around the globe.
The continuation of near neutral conditions - with the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the long-term average – or the re-emergence of La Niña conditions are the most likely scenarios for the rest of 2011, according model forecasts and expert interpretation used by WMO.
If a La Niña event does occur, current indications are that it would be considerably weaker than the moderate to strong 2010-2011 episode, which ended in May 2011 and was linked to disastrously wet conditions in parts of Australia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and portions of northern South America (e.g. Colombia), and drought in parts of the Horn of Africa, central southwest Asia, southeastern South America and the southern United States of America.
Development of an El Niño is considered very unlikely, the Update said.