No. 968 - Update El Niño / La Niña

No. 968 - Update El Niño / La Niña



11 March 2013

Geneva 11 March 2013 –Neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continue in the tropical Pacific. Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that the likelihood of El Niño or La Niña conditions developing during the first half of 2013 is low, and that neutral conditions are likely to be maintained through the boreal spring. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor Pacific Basin conditions and provide outlooks to assess the most likely state of the climate through the coming several months of 2013.During the last 10 months El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific (e.g., tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, sea level pressure, cloudiness and trade winds) have generally been at neutral levels, indicating neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions have been present. From July to October 2012, sea surface temperatures increased to a borderline El Niño level, but the atmospheric characteristics of El Niño failed to develop and the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole remained in a neutral state. Since November the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled, and although the first two months of 2013 showed patterns of ocean temperatures that approached borderlineLa Niña levels, and cloudiness and trade winds that also leaned towards La Niña conditions, the tendency has been weak and the state of the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole continued to be neutral.El Nino / La Nina Update

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