Climate change is threatening the livelihoods and food security of millions of smallholder farmers and agribusiness who depend on agriculture in the South East Asia region. Despite the fact that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation system has such a major impact in the region and the impacts of which will be exacerbated under climate change there is little application of seasonal climate forecasting in managing the associated risks in the agricultural sector.
Flash floods are among the world’s deadliest natural disasters with more than 5 000 lives lost annually. Their social, economic and environmental impacts are significant. Accounting for approximately 85% of flooding cases, flash floods also have the highest mortality rate among different classes of flooding, including riverine and coastal. Flash floods differ from river floods in their short time scales and occurrence on small spatial scales, which makes flash flood forecasting a different challenge from large-river flood forecasting.
The Southeast Asia Flash Flood Guidance System (SeAFFGS) has been officially launched, ushering in the prospect of improved early warnings for a major natural hazard, which accounts for a significant portion of the lives lost and property damages due to flooding in the region.
A successful six-year, 10 million Canadian dollar project, funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has strengthened the quality and availability of impact-based forecasts and services to support communities in Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and the Pacific.
The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) has issued its seasonal forecast for June-July-August 2021 for Southeast Asia, taking into account the end of the La Niña event and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral though may become negative.
