Climate change is threatening the livelihoods and food security of millions of smallholder farmers and agribusiness who depend on agriculture in the South East Asia region. Despite the fact that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation system has such a major impact in the region and the impacts of which will be exacerbated under climate change there is little application of seasonal climate forecasting in managing the associated risks in the agricultural sector.
Flash floods are among the world’s deadliest natural disasters with more than 5 000 lives lost annually. Their social, economic and environmental impacts are significant. Accounting for approximately 85% of flooding cases, flash floods also have the highest mortality rate among different classes of flooding, including riverine and coastal. Flash floods differ from river floods in their short time scales and occurrence on small spatial scales, which makes flash flood forecasting a different challenge from large-river flood forecasting.
The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) has issued its seasonal forecast for June-July-August 2021 for Southeast Asia, taking into account the end of the La Niña event and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral though may become negative.
