The Greater Horn of Africa is finally emerging from three years of devastating drought, with above average rainfall predicted for the forthcoming season. Whilst this is a welcome prospect, it is accompanied by the risk that flooding will impact local communities and livelihoods.
Catastrophic consequences of the multi-year drought will continue in 2023 in the Horn of Africa, leaving communities in urgent need of assistance. According to new seasonal forecast, below-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the region over the next three months. Should this happen, it would be an unprecedented sixth poor season, according to a new joint statement by meteorological agencies and humanitarian partners.
Drought-stricken parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are bracing for a fifth consecutive failed rainy season, which will worsen the crisis which is impacting millions of people.
A new seasonal forecast for the drought-stricken Horn of Africa shows higher chances of a strong rainy season in many parts of the region. But this is coupled with caution and warnings that stakeholders should still prepare for “worst case scenarios.”
A drier than usual season is forecasted across Eastern Africa from October to December 2021. In particular, in Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Kenya, southern, central, and north-western Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and the Red Sea coast of northern Eritrea. Of particular concern are the drier than usual conditions forecasted over the cross-border areas of Kenya and Somalia, according to IGAD's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
