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Publish Date: 27 August 2020
There is a 60 percent chance of a weak La Niña event developing during September to November 2020, according to a new El Niño/La Niña update from the World Meteorological Organization. Despite the tendency for La Niña to have a cooling effect on global temperatures overall, above-average temperatures are expected to be predominant.
Publish Date: 28 May 2020
Sea surface temperature conditions in the tropical Pacific remain neutral in terms of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status, signifying that neither El Niño nor La Niña is currently prevailing. Recent cooling of the sub-surface waters in the region has subsequently caused the hitherto slightly above-average sea surface temperatures to return to near-average levels during May. The latest seasonal forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centers of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) indicate that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to cool further, potentially approaching weak...
Publish Date: 2 March 2020
Above average temperatures are expected in many parts of the globe in the next few months, even without the presence of a warming El Niño event, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Publish Date: 29 November 2019
Given current conditions and model outlooks, the chance of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing during the period December 2019 through February 2020 is estimated at about 65%, while the chances for El Niño and La Niña are 30% and 5%, respectively, according to WMO’s El Niño/La Niña Update.
Publish Date: 2 September 2019
Average sea surface and land temperatures across large parts of the world are forecast to be above normal in September-November, despite the expected absence of a full-blown El Niño event, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Publish Date: 27 May 2019
A strong El Niño event during 2019 appears unlikely, according to a new World Meteorological Organization Update, which is based on forecast models and expert opinion from around the globe. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at borderline to weak El Niño levels in April and early May 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns have also been present.
Publish Date: 26 February 2019
There is a 50-60% chance of El Niño developing by May 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific were at or slightly below El Niño thresholds in January and early February 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns also emerged around late January.
Publish Date: 27 November 2018
There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized.
Publish Date: 18 February 2016
The powerful 2015-2016 El Niño has passed its peak but remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization. It is expected to weaken in the coming months and fade away during the second quarter of 2016. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above average in late 2015, providing evidence that the 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest on record, comparable with the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. It is too early to establish conclusively whether it was...