Newspaper headlines on tropical cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons and the widespread devastation they leave behind have led many people to question whether climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of such phenomena. Many question whether scientific observations show such trends and, if so, do scientists attribute the trend to climate change. It is important to address the question of how tropical cyclones could be affected by climate change, particularly in view of their socio-economic impacts on landfall.
Most scientific climate models predict future decreases in global tropical cyclones numbers, however, increases are projected in the intensities of the strongest cyclones – globally, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 storms may increase by 0–25% – with increased related rainfall (see here). The models show that sea level rise is likely to contribute to increased storm surge risks. The vulnerability of coastal regions to tropical cyclone storm-surge flooding is, therefore, expected to increase with global-warming related sea-level rise. Coastal developments will also increased the population at risk. Confidence levels are generally lower for some other tropical cyclones projections, including projected changes in their tracks, and in their translation speed. In general, confidence in various tropical cyclones projections was lower for the individual basin scale than for the global average. (Read more: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment)
Record of Top Ten Tropical Cyclones from 1970 to 2019
The soon to be released WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes 1970-2019 states that in the past 50 years, three of the top 10 disasters worldwide in terms of deaths were attributed to tropical cyclones. The deaths recorded in these three events account for 43% of the combined deaths of the top ten disasters. In addition, the Atlas records that seven of the top ten disasters in terms of economic losses were attributed to tropical cyclones, which account for 82% of the total economic losses of the combined top ten disasters. Six of these disasters occurred in the USA.
Ranked as the third most costly tropical cyclone, Maria in 2017 impacted a number of countries, including Dominica, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe (FRA), Haiti, Martinique (FRA), Puerto Rico, United States of America, Virgin Island (US), and Virgin Island (UK). The losses in Dominica alone totaled to US$ 1.5 billion - estimated at over 200% of its Gross Domestic Product (IMF, 2019).
Top ten Tropical Cyclones in terms of death and economic losses (1970–2019)
|
Disaster Type |
Year |
Country |
Number |
|
Disaster Type |
Year |
Country |
losses in |
1 |
Storm |
1970 |
Bangladesh |
300 000 |
1 |
Storm (Katrina) |
2005 |
United States of America |
163.61 |
2 |
Storm (Gorky) |
1991 |
Bangladesh |
138 866 |
2 |
Storm (Harvey) |
2017 |
United States of America |
96.94 |
3 |
Storm (Nargis) |
2008 |
Myanmar |
138 366 |
3 |
Storm (Maria) |
2017 |
Puerto Rico |
69.39 |
4 |
Storm |
1985 |
Bangladesh |
15 000 |
4 |
Storm (Irma) |
2017 |
United States of America |
58.16 |
5 |
Storm (Mitch) |
1998 |
Honduras |
14 600 |
5 |
Storm (Sandy) |
2012 |
United States of America |
54.47 |
6 |
Storm |
1977 |
India |
14 204 |
6 |
Storm (Andrew) |
1992 |
United States of America |
48.27 |
7 |
Storm (05B) |
1999 |
India |
9 843 |
7 |
Storm (Ike) |
2008 |
United States of America |
35.63 |
8 |
Storm |
1971 |
India |
9 658 |
8 |
Storm (Ivan) |
2004 |
United States of America |
24.36 |
9 |
Storm (Fifi) |
1974 |
Honduras |
8 000 |
9 |
Storm (Charley) |
2004 |
United States of America |
21.65 |
10 |
Storm (Haiyan) |
2013 |
Philippines |
7 354 |
10 |
Storm (Rita) |
2005 |
United States of America |
20.94 |