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Publish Date: 27 November 2018
There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized.
Publish Date: 22 June 2018
The Korean Meteorological Administration has signed an agreement with the World Meteorological Organization to host the International Coordination Office for the second phase of a project which aims to improve predictions at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales.
Publish Date: 9 July 2018
An Arctic summer special observing period is taking place from 1 July to 30 September as part of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). Extensive extra observations will be carried out at numerous land stations in the Arctic as part of field campaigns and expeditions, and by autonomous instruments. Numerical experimentation and internationally coordinated verification activities will use the additional observations for forecast evaluation and observational impact studies.
Publish Date: 31 August 2018
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum dedicated its 50th session to gender sensitive weather and climate services in order to promote deeper understanding of how men and women have different needs and roles in climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies.
Publish Date: 23 August 2018
The life and career of Anna Mani, a pioneer Indian physicist and meteorologist, is being celebrated on what would have been her 100 th birthday. Anna Mani at the International...
Publish Date: 10 September 2018
There is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing by the end of this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its intensity is currently uncertain, but a strong event appears unlikely.
Publish Date: 28 March 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean remain at weak La Niña levels, while most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with an imminent decay of the La Niña event. Most climate models indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely early in the second quarter of 2018, while a continuation of La Niña conditions through the second quarter is less likely.
Publish Date: 14 June 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing; that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest a continuation of the neutral conditions into the third quarter of 2018. Many models further indicate this period to be marked by a gradual warming of the tropical Pacific, eventually reaching a possible weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. However, such long-lead ENSO forecasts have substantial uncertainty, mainly...