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Publish Date: 27 November 2018
There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized.
Publish Date: 31 August 2018
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum dedicated its 50th session to gender sensitive weather and climate services in order to promote deeper understanding of how men and women have different needs and roles in climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies.
Publish Date: 10 September 2018
There is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing by the end of this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its intensity is currently uncertain, but a strong event appears unlikely.
Publish Date: 28 March 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean remain at weak La Niña levels, while most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with an imminent decay of the La Niña event. Most climate models indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely early in the second quarter of 2018, while a continuation of La Niña conditions through the second quarter is less likely.
Publish Date: 14 June 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing; that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest a continuation of the neutral conditions into the third quarter of 2018. Many models further indicate this period to be marked by a gradual warming of the tropical Pacific, eventually reaching a possible weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. However, such long-lead ENSO forecasts have substantial uncertainty, mainly...