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Publish Date: 29 November 2019
Given current conditions and model outlooks, the chance of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing during the period December 2019 through February 2020 is estimated at about 65%, while the chances for El Niño and La Niña are 30% and 5%, respectively, according to WMO’s El Niño/La Niña Update.
Publish Date: 31 August 2018
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum dedicated its 50th session to gender sensitive weather and climate services in order to promote deeper understanding of how men and women have different needs and roles in climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies.
Publish Date: 14 June 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing; that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest a continuation of the neutral conditions into the third quarter of 2018. Many models further indicate this period to be marked by a gradual warming of the tropical Pacific, eventually reaching a possible weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. However, such long-lead ENSO forecasts have substantial uncertainty, mainly...
Publish Date: 20 May 2016
Global temperature records were broken yet again in April for the 12th consecutive month, the longest such streak in the 137-year record of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA ). Overall, 13 out of the 15 highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred since February 2015. NOAA said the combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for April 2016 was 1.10°C (1.98°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F) - the highest temperature departure for April since global records began in 1880. This value surpassed the...
Publish Date: 18 May 2016
Human activity has increased the direct warming effect of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere by 50 percent above pre-industrial levels during the past 25 years, according to NOAA's 10th Annual Greenhouse Gas Index . In 2015, the global average CO₂ concentration reached 399 parts per million, increasing by a record amount of almost 3 ppm. From the end of the Ice Age to the beginning of the industrial era, atmospheric carbon dioxide remained remarkably stable at 278 ppm.
Publish Date: 13 May 2016
The previously strong 2015-16 El Niño is now weakening rapidly. However it is still likely to influence climate patterns in some regions until mid-year. Climate prediction models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral during May 2016, with odds now increasing of La Niña development in the third quarter. A resurgence of El Niño is highly unlikely in 2016. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months. Ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean exceeded +2.0 degrees Celsius above average between...