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Publish Date: 2 September 2019
Average sea surface and land temperatures across large parts of the world are forecast to be above normal in September-November, despite the expected absence of a full-blown El Niño event, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Publish Date: 27 May 2019
A strong El Niño event during 2019 appears unlikely, according to a new World Meteorological Organization Update, which is based on forecast models and expert opinion from around the globe. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at borderline to weak El Niño levels in April and early May 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns have also been present.
Publish Date: 26 February 2019
There is a 50-60% chance of El Niño developing by May 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific were at or slightly below El Niño thresholds in January and early February 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns also emerged around late January.
Publish Date: 27 November 2018
There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized.
Publish Date: 18 February 2016
The powerful 2015-2016 El Niño has passed its peak but remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization. It is expected to weaken in the coming months and fade away during the second quarter of 2016. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above average in late 2015, providing evidence that the 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest on record, comparable with the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. It is too early to establish conclusively whether it was...
Publish Date: 16 February 2017
Current Situation and Outlook During the second half of 2016, tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were at borderline weak La Niña/cool-neutral levels. Many atmospheric ENSO indicators also approached or exceeded...
Publish Date: 14 December 2017
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have recently cooled to weak La Niña levels. Similarly, most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with the early stages of a La Niña event. Climate models indicate that weak La Niña conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018. A return to ENSO-neutral conditions before early 2018 is less likely, while the emergence of El Niño before the second quarter of 2018 appears very remote. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming...
Publish Date: 10 September 2018
There is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing by the end of this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its intensity is currently uncertain, but a strong event appears unlikely.
Publish Date: 28 March 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean remain at weak La Niña levels, while most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with an imminent decay of the La Niña event. Most climate models indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely early in the second quarter of 2018, while a continuation of La Niña conditions through the second quarter is less likely.
Publish Date: 7 July 2017
ENSO neutral conditions currently prevail in the tropical Pacific Ocean, despite sea surface temperatures being near the El Niño threshold. Most climate models surveyed indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through July-September 2017, followed by a 50-60% chance of a continuation of ENSO-neutral during the subsequent months of 2017. The development of El Niño conditions is slightly less likely, while the emergence of La Niña appears unlikely. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.
