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Publish Date: 26 February 2019
There is a 50-60% chance of El Niño developing by May 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific were at or slightly below El Niño thresholds in January and early February 2019. Some El Niño-like atmospheric patterns also emerged around late January.
Publish Date: 27 November 2018
There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized.
Publish Date: 18 February 2016
The powerful 2015-2016 El Niño has passed its peak but remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization. It is expected to weaken in the coming months and fade away during the second quarter of 2016. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above average in late 2015, providing evidence that the 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest on record, comparable with the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. It is too early to establish conclusively whether it was...
Publish Date: 16 February 2017
Current Situation and Outlook During the second half of 2016, tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures were at borderline weak La Niña/cool-neutral levels. Many atmospheric ENSO indicators also approached or exceeded...
Publish Date: 22 March 2017
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its new, long-awaited, digitized International Cloud Atlas – the global reference for observing and identifying clouds, which are an essential part of weather, the climate system and the water cycle. It was released for World Meteorological Day on 23rd March.
Publish Date: 12 September 2017
African leaders are coming together this week for action on modernizing weather and climate services, which inextricably link the Continent’s development, climate, and resilience agendas. Weather and climate drive nine out of ten disasters in Africa, threatening Africa’s hard-won development gains. Floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and landslides continue to cause heavy damage and losses to livelihoods. Over the last two decades, these disasters have cost the continent US$10 billion dollars. Given the increasing climate variability, these disasters are projected to increase in frequency...
Publish Date: 23 March 2018
Weather-ready climate-smart is the theme of this year’s World Meteorological Day on 23 March. It highlights the need for informed planning for day-to-day weather and hazards like floods as well as for naturally occurring climate variability and long-term climate change.
Publish Date: 14 December 2017
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have recently cooled to weak La Niña levels. Similarly, most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with the early stages of a La Niña event. Climate models indicate that weak La Niña conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018. A return to ENSO-neutral conditions before early 2018 is less likely, while the emergence of El Niño before the second quarter of 2018 appears very remote. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming...
Publish Date: 10 September 2018
There is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing by the end of this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its intensity is currently uncertain, but a strong event appears unlikely.
Publish Date: 28 March 2018
Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean remain at weak La Niña levels, while most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with an imminent decay of the La Niña event. Most climate models indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely early in the second quarter of 2018, while a continuation of La Niña conditions through the second quarter is less likely.