El Niño/La Niña Update (June 2018)

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing; that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest a continuation of the neutral conditions into the third quarter of 2018. Many models further indicate this period to be marked by a gradual warming of the tropical Pacific, eventually reaching a possible weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. However, such long-lead ENSO forecasts have substantial uncertainty, mainly related to the fact that forecasts going through the March-June period have lower confidence than those made in the second half of the year. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.