Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecasts
This online workshop, organised by the WMO World Weather Research Programme's (WWRP) Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR), in conjunction with the Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting (PDEF), aims to bring together researchers, operational forecasters, and practitioners to advance understanding and best practices in probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasting.
Over three days, with 2-hr sessions each day, participants will learn about some of the current practices, share experiences and identify existing gaps and challenges, including how existing products can support both research and decision-making, based on end-user needs. It will also define priority areas for future development, with particular focus on emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence, and also forward-looking recommendations on how communication of probabilistic products can address user needs. There will be plenty of discussion time, with planned breakout sessions on days 2 and 3.
All times in the agenda are in UTC.
| Day 1 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:40hs | Welcome and setting the scene | Hongyan Zhu (BoM) / Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IISER) |
| 12:40 - 12:50hs | Overview of the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) Series | Rob Rogers (Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center) |
| 12:50 - 13:00hs | Gaps and training needs for the use of probabilistic products | Anne-Claire Fontan (WMO) |
13:00 – 13:30hs | Overview of the current state of probabilistic TC forecasting | Alan Brammer (CIRA/CSU) / Helen Titley (UK Met Office) |
| 13:30 – 13:50hs | Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle - 2026 Case Study | Rabi Rivett (Bureau of Meteorology) |
13:50 – 14:30hs | Q&A and Discussion | |
Day 2 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:50hs | Probabilistic TC Products: How do they support decision making? | James Ashley (Bureau of Meteorology) |
12:50 – 13:10hs | Transforming Storm Surge Warnings: PAGASA’s Transition to Probabilistic, Impact‑Based Forecasting | Jehan Panti (PAGASA) |
13:10 – 13:30hs | Integrating user feedback to guide probabilistic weather forecast communication | Robert Prestley (NSF NCAR) |
13:30 – 14:15hs | Breakout groups | |
14:15 – 14:30hs | Plenary discussion | |
Day 3 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:50hs | Applications of AI Technologies in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Future Perspectives | Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA) |
12:50 – 13:10hs | Probabilistic TC Guidance and Forecasts at NHC | Wallace Hogsett (NOAA) |
13:10 – 13:30hs | From probabilistic forecast to preparedness – HKO’s warning value chain in Super Typhoon Ragasa | CW Choy (Hong Kong Observatory) |
13:30 – 14:15hs | Breakout groups | |
14:15 – 14:30hs | Plenary discussion |
