Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts

For the first time, the Met Office has brought together 25 years of research to explain why probabilistic forecasting is becoming central to UK weather prediction.

The research, funded by Public Weather Service and published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s Weather, is a comprehensive analysis of how probability-based forecasts, which capture the inherent uncertainty of predicted weather patterns, can provide enhanced forecasts that better inform decision-making.