El Niño puts humanitarian weather services in the spotlight

The current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength, off the monitoring charts used for the past four decades, according to WMO's latest seasonal climate outlook. The event is expected to peak towards the end of the year, but its impacts will be felt long after.

"A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster. We have the science, the forecast, the early warnings to save lives and protect livelihoods. What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities," said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of WMO.  

WMO and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have issued a joint call for urgent and coordinated anticipatory action. A key channel for turning that call into practice is the WMO Coordination Mechanism (WCM), whose role was showcased at a side event during the fourth session of the Commission for Weather, Climate, Hydrological, Marine and Related Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM-4).

A window for preparedness

A very strong El Niño disrupts normal temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions. It can bring severe drought to some areas, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, and increased heat across large parts of the world. Extreme events are already being observed, and they are expected to multiply and cascade as El Niño intensifies.

The latest outlook released on 21 October 2026 points to heightened risks of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of East Africa during the October–December rainy season, and drier conditions in Southern Africa from November that could affect crops, water and livelihoods. Southeast Asia faces heat, rainfall deficits and wildfire and smoke hazards. In the Americas, parts of western South America have already seen severe flooding, while drought risk is rising in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.

These impacts compound humanitarian needs, particularly for refugees, displaced people and communities living in conflict, where housing, water, sanitation and health services are already under pressure.

"The window for preparedness is still open in many regions. Extreme weather conditions do not need to translate into humanitarian emergencies or into casualties, but this window will not remain open indefinitely," said Saulo.  

Because seasonal outlooks indicate regional tendencies rather than individual events, regional and national forecasts, and expert interpretation of them, are essential to pinpoint where and when action is needed. This is where WCM steps in.

Bridging science and humanitarian action

WCM, a core element of the Early Warnings for All initiative, supports crisis-prone and conflict-affected regions with timely expert advice and situational awareness. It curates authoritative weather, climate and water information from WMO Members and Centres and co-designs tailored products with UN and humanitarian agencies, helping them prepare, take early action and respond to crises. It also builds capacity among the humanitarian community.

Its regular services include the Global and Regional HydroMet Weekly scans and monthly climate briefings and scans. WCM products have supported humanitarian operations ahead of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Mocha in Myanmar and Bangladesh in 2023, and in the aftermath of the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar. WCM is now working with partners to support preparedness and early action in the context of El Niño.

"Since 2022, WCM has delivered more than 750 tailored products, supporting humanitarian situational awareness, preparedness and early action," said Yi Wang, Chief of Severe Weather Services and WCM lead at WMO. "Together, we can help turn authoritative information into earlier action, better preparedness and more resilient communities."

Opening the SERCOM-4 side event, Véronique Bouchet, Senior Director of WMO's Department of Sciences, Services and Capacity Development, noted that evolving hazards hit displaced and crisis-affected communities hardest, making reliable information urgent. She described WCM as a key part of WMO's contribution to Early Warnings for All, and stressed the value of co-designing services so that the information and advice WCM delivers fits what humanitarian stakeholders need for planning and operations.

Information alone is not enough, said Ian Lisk, President of SERCOM. Services must reflect how users actually make decisions and what they need in order to act. He described WCM as a bridge between scientific expertise and humanitarian action, built on the foundational role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and WMO Centres.

Marian Schilperoord, Deputy Director of the UN Refugee Agency's (UNHCR) Division of Emergency and Programme Support, and John Long, Head of OCHA's Emergency Response Preparedness Unit, underlined the importance of collaboration between WMO and humanitarian organizations in strengthening preparedness and early action. They also highlighted the role of WMO Centres and NMHSs as authoritative and trusted voices at regional and national levels.

Broadening engagement

Sustaining and expanding WCM will require broader engagement, continued user involvement, and adequate resources and capacity, said Lisk, who encouraged WMO Members not yet involved to take part. NMHSs were urged to engage with and contribute to WCM, strengthening the links between authoritative information and national anticipatory action and crisis response.

In his closing remarks, Osvaldo Moraes, Chair of the Standing Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Services (SC-DRR), underlined the importance of adequate services for disaster risk reduction.

The event, attended by around 50 participants, was moderated by Marzia Santini, Chair of the Advisory Group on WCM and Lead of the European Crisis Management Laboratory at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. A poster session featured contributions from the WCM team, WMO Members and Centres, and UN and humanitarian stakeholders, giving participants the chance to exchange experiences on how tailored information can better support humanitarian decision-making across hazards and timescales.

Key takeaways

• The window is open, but not indefinitely: a potentially historic El Niño gives advance warning, and that warning must be used to protect those most at risk.
• Co-design services with users: information must be shaped around how humanitarian actors plan, decide and operate.
• Rely on trusted sources: NMHSs and WMO Centres are the authoritative voices that underpin anticipatory action and crisis response.
• Broaden participation: more WMO Members are needed to sustain and expand WCM's work.
• Invest in capacity: continued growth requires adequate resources and sustained collaboration between the WMO and humanitarian communities.